When it comes to predicting world events, some of the most influential decisions are fraught with a significant amount of uncertainty: Will this national economy stabilize or crash? Will that country follow through with their promises to halt production of WMDs? Will these public demonstrations lead to democratic change or violent revolt?
“Governments rely routinely and heavily on intuitive beliefs about high-stakes outcomes,” write psychology researchers Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock, Don Moore, and colleagues.
Despite this, training the people who make these intuitive judgments is difficult, because there is little scientific research available that can shed light on the issue.

Predicting Uncertain Events on a Global Scale